If another global financial crisis happens in the near future, which of the following actions/policies are most likely to give some immunity to India?
- Not depending on short-term foreign borrowings
- Opening up to more foreign banks
- Maintaining full capital account convertibility
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
Detailed Explanation:
Answer: Option 1 — 1 only
During a global financial crisis, India's primary shield against external shocks is reducing dependence on short-term foreign borrowings, which minimizes vulnerability to sudden capital flight and currency instability. The other two measures would actually increase systemic risk rather than provide immunity.
✅ Statement 1 – Correct: Limiting short-term foreign borrowings reduces exposure to capital flight; when foreign investors withdraw funds during a crisis, economies with lower short-term external debt face less rupee depreciation and financial instability.
❌ Statement 2 – Incorrect: Opening up to more foreign banks increases reliance on foreign capital and credit; during a crisis, foreign banks typically restrict lending, amplifying credit contraction and economic damage in the host economy.
❌ Statement 3 – Incorrect: Full capital account convertibility permits unrestricted outflow of foreign capital; this accelerates capital flight during crises, causing sharp currency depreciation and financial sector stress, making the economy more vulnerable rather than immune.
📝 Short Notes: Capital Account Management and Financial Stability
- Capital Account Convertibility: Allows free movement of capital across borders. India has partial convertibility on the capital account, maintaining restrictions on short-term speculative flows to manage systemic risk.
- Short-term Foreign Debt Risk: Creates currency mismatch and rollover risk; during crises, maturity mismatches force rapid repayment, depleting foreign reserves and destabilizing the exchange rate.
- Foreign Direct Investment vs. Foreign Portfolio Investment: FDI (long-term, stable) is preferred over FPI (short-term, volatile); foreign banks' presence increases FPI dependency and pro-cyclical credit behavior during downturns.
- Debt Sustainability Framework: Countries with lower short-term external debt as a percentage of foreign reserves and lower debt-to-GDP ratios demonstrate greater resilience to external shocks.
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